Just Run The Numbers

JRTN Manuscript

The JRTN Manuscript

The manuscript introduces retirement modeling and then digs into details about the potential inputs and outputs of a model. There is an extensive discussion about using a retirement model for decision making and the inherent limitations of retirement modeling. A tool selection guide introduces different types of modeling tools and provides a checklist for comparing tools.

The last part of the manuscript is a user’s guide for the JRTN tool and an overview of the implementation. The user’s guide includes a section that focuses on how to use JRTN to answer specific questions. There is also a brief discussion about potential enhancements.

The manuscript is rich with figures and tables, although, of course, none of that are professionally rendered. There are about 212 pages exclusive of the table of contents and references when rendered as a traditional professional document (8 1/2 X 11 inch paper, 12 pt font, etc). The manuscript is a pre-publication draft. I may or may not move forward to publish it as there is a bunch of additional work and possibly expense associated with publishing (depending on the publishing route). But in either case, I am eager for feedback.

The following is a summary of the chapters:

  • Chapter 1 – Overview. Outlines the scope of the book.
  • Chapter 2 – Introduction. Lays the groundwork for modeling including a discussion about why your 60’s are important, the relationship between Roth and traditional IRA’s etc. Introduces retirement modeling concepts.
  • Chapter 3 – Introduction to Retirement Models. Introduces the modeling process starting with the creation of very simple models “by hand.” It wraps up with a discussion about creating your own spreadsheet-based model.
  • Chapter 4 – A brief discussion about using generative AI for retirement modeling.
  • Chapter 5 – What to Model. Discusses what we are trying to model in additional detail including income and asset classes, income taxes, and spending. This forms the basis for the core requirements for a model.
  • Chapter 6 – Using your Model to make Decisions. Discusses different questions to be answered with a model. For example, “When to retire,” “When to commence Social Security,” “How to do Roth Conversions,” etc. These are another set of requirements for the model.
  • Chapter 7 – Other Considerations. Briefly discusses some other considerations such as Risk tolerance, Factors beyond just money, etc. This provides some additional context, and it helps to bound the problem.
  • Chapter 8 – Some potential surprises: What your model may tell you. Identifies some potential surprises from your modeling activity. This chapter reads a little like Internet click bait such as “Can I afford to retire with $1M?” It is more concrete than most of the click bait because it tries to help you answer the questions yourself and because it shows how the results differ for different situations.
  • Chapter 9 – Modeling Tools. Discusses modeling tools starting with a discussion of different types of tools and closing with a guide to selecting a modeling tool. This includes a comparison matrix. In a prelude to what follows, this matrix is filled in for the JRTN tool.
  • Chapter 10 – JRTN User’s Guide. This is the user guide for JRTN. It covers both the spreadsheet structure as well as the various forms used to interact with the automation.
  • Chapter 11 – Using JRTN to answer questions and solve problems. Extends the user guide by describing how to use the tool to answer specific questions of the sort described in Chapter 5.
  • Chapter 12 – Elaborations. Provides some elaboration such as a list of potential enhancements, discussion of execution performance time, etc.
  • Chapter 13 – JRTN Implementation. Provides an overview of the JRTN implementation. This includes design philosophy, design overview (diagrams and pseudo-code), and other related topics.

Feedback Please!

Feedback on abuse of the mother tongue, in all of the many possible ways, is always welcome, but I am most interesting feedback about contents:

  • What is belabored?
  • What is treated too tersely?
  • Adjacent topics to potentially discuss
  • Criticisms about methods, conclusions, or generalizations
  • Material organization